Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17
Arouca
ARO
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca27%
Draw27%
Benfica46%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.52
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession61%
45%Territory36%
12%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.1%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 1 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.