Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17
Arouca
ARO
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca12%
Draw19%
Benfica68%
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.17
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–211.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–38.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Benfica will have the ball; Arouca will not mind.
56%Possession66%
43%Territory52%
6%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.13
3.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arouca, 4 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arouca
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.