Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Estoril
ESO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora52%
Draw24%
Estoril24%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.18
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession41%
35%Territory30%
15%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.07
5.6%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Estrela da Amadora, 3 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.