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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17

Estrela da Amadora

EST

Estoril

ESO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Estrela da Amadora55%
Draw23%
Estoril22%

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.19

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.1%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 2–08.2%
  • 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession46%
39%Territory33%
28%From set plays9%
0.08Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.