Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17
Alverca
ALV
Marítimo
MAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca45%
Draw27%
Marítimo28%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.16
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marítimo will have the ball; Alverca will not mind.
42%Possession50%
32%Territory28%
37%From set plays67%
0.14Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alverca, 3 for Marítimo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.