Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16
Santa Clara
SAN
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santa Clara54%
Draw25%
Estrela da Amadora20%
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.96
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession47%
32%Territory35%
14%From set plays15%
0.13Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Santa Clara, 4 for Estrela da Amadora. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Santa Clara
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.