Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16
FC Porto
FCP
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Porto82%
Draw13%
Nacional6%
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.65
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-2.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–013.0%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 4–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
FC Porto will have the ball; Nacional will not mind.
59%Possession47%
39%Territory29%
37%From set plays23%
0.20Chance quality0.10
4.9%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Porto, 3 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.