Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16
FC Porto
FCP
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Porto81%
Draw14%
Nacional4%
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.42
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
31%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–017.4%
- 1–015.0%
- 3–013.4%
- 4–07.8%
- 2–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession34%
51%Territory27%
12%From set plays59%
0.11Chance quality0.06
3.4%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC Porto, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.