Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16
Estoril
ESO
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril42%
Draw27%
Alverca31%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.25
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Alverca get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession42%
30%Territory32%
20%From set plays37%
0.07Chance quality0.14
8.1%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Estoril, 3 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.