Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16
Estoril
ESO
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril40%
Draw27%
Alverca33%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.36
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession32%
33%Territory24%
9%From set plays59%
0.08Chance quality0.06
5.6%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estoril, 2 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estoril
Alverca
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.