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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15

Sporting CP

SCP

Estoril

ESO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sporting CP83%
Draw12%
Estoril5%

Expected goals

2.81 – 0.60

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

43%

Fair handicap

-2.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–013.3%
  • 3–012.1%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 4–08.3%
  • 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sporting CP will have the ball; Estoril will not mind.

66%Possession41%
46%Territory30%
6%From set plays20%
0.14Chance quality0.07
3.9%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting CP, 3 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.