Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15
Nacional
NAC
Moreirense
MOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional46%
Draw26%
Moreirense28%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.23
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nacional will have the ball; Moreirense will not mind.
47%Possession33%
29%Territory23%
23%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.11
6.9%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nacional, 4 for Moreirense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.