Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15
Arouca
ARO
Casa Pia AC
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca68%
Draw21%
Casa Pia AC11%
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.69
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 2–013.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession41%
45%Territory41%
12%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.07
5.1%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 2 for Casa Pia AC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 13 of 88 matches, not the full season.