Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Marítimo
MAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora54%
Draw24%
Marítimo22%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.12
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marítimo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession50%
35%Territory28%
15%From set plays67%
0.09Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Estrela da Amadora, 3 for Marítimo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.