Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Marítimo
MAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora49%
Draw26%
Marítimo25%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.13
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
56%Possession48%
39%Territory31%
29%From set plays56%
0.07Chance quality0.09
6.6%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Marítimo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Marítimo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.