Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15
Alverca
ALV
Gil Vicente
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca28%
Draw29%
Gil Vicente43%
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.39
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Alverca get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession47%
32%Territory35%
37%From set plays10%
0.14Chance quality0.14
6.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alverca, 3 for Gil Vicente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.