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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15

Alverca

ALV

Gil Vicente

GIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Alverca28%
Draw29%
Gil Vicente43%

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.39

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.8%
  • 0112.1%
  • 009.6%
  • 109.2%
  • 128.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Alverca get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

42%Possession47%
32%Territory35%
37%From set plays10%
0.14Chance quality0.14
6.0%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alverca, 3 for Gil Vicente. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.