Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
Vitória de Guimarães
VIT
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vitória de Guimarães53%
Draw28%
Alverca19%
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.81
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–011.2%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession32%
46%Territory24%
18%From set plays59%
0.08Chance quality0.06
5.5%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Vitória de Guimarães, 2 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vitória de Guimarães
Alverca
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.