Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
Vitória de Guimarães
VIT
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vitória de Guimarães46%
Draw27%
Alverca27%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.14
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession33%
42%Territory24%
16%From set plays36%
0.12Chance quality0.13
6.8%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Vitória de Guimarães, 2 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vitória de Guimarães
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.