Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
Benfica
BEN
Braga
BRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica60%
Draw23%
Braga17%
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.94
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
66%Possession61%
52%Territory49%
30%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Benfica, 4 for Braga.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.