Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
FC Porto
FCP
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Porto78%
Draw16%
Estrela da Amadora7%
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.56
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
39%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–015.3%
- 1–013.5%
- 3–011.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession55%
51%Territory39%
12%From set plays28%
0.11Chance quality0.08
3.4%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC Porto, 2 for Estrela da Amadora. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.