Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
Estoril
ESO
Santa Clara
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril23%
Draw28%
Santa Clara49%
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.45
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.4%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession48%
30%Territory32%
20%From set plays14%
0.07Chance quality0.13
8.1%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Estoril, 3 for Santa Clara. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Santa Clara
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.