Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
Estoril
ESO
Santa Clara
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril29%
Draw27%
Santa Clara45%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.57
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession44%
33%Territory33%
9%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estoril, 2 for Santa Clara. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estoril
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.