Liga Portugal · Matchweek 13
Nacional
NAC
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional14%
Draw21%
Benfica65%
Expected goals
0.83 – 2.01
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.4%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
34%Possession61%
27%Territory36%
59%From set plays18%
0.06Chance quality0.09
7.9%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Nacional, 1 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.