Liga Portugal · Matchweek 13
Nacional
NAC
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional9%
Draw16%
Benfica75%
Expected goals
0.81 – 2.51
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–211.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Benfica will have the ball; Nacional will not mind.
47%Possession66%
29%Territory52%
23%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.9%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nacional, 4 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.