Liga Portugal · Matchweek 13
Estoril
ESO
Vitória de Guimarães
VIT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril24%
Draw25%
Vitória de Guimarães51%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.77
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession57%
33%Territory42%
9%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estoril, 1 for Vitória de Guimarães. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estoril
Vitória de Guimarães
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.