Liga Portugal · Matchweek 13
Braga
BRA
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Braga47%
Draw29%
Arouca24%
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.94
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 2–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
63%Possession67%
54%Territory45%
36%From set plays12%
0.08Chance quality0.09
2.9%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Braga, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.