Liga Portugal · Matchweek 13
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Gil Vicente
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora35%
Draw28%
Gil Vicente36%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.33
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession47%
35%Territory35%
15%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Estrela da Amadora, 3 for Gil Vicente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.