Liga Portugal · Matchweek 13
Alverca
ALV
Moreirense
MOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca48%
Draw26%
Moreirense26%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.17
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Alverca will have the ball; Moreirense will not mind.
42%Possession33%
32%Territory23%
37%From set plays37%
0.14Chance quality0.11
6.0%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alverca, 4 for Moreirense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.