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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12

Vitória de Guimarães

VIT

Estrela da Amadora

EST

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vitória de Guimarães46%
Draw29%
Estrela da Amadora25%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.00

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.1%
  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–010.2%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 2–19.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession55%
46%Territory39%
18%From set plays28%
0.08Chance quality0.08
5.5%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Vitória de Guimarães, 2 for Estrela da Amadora. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.