Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12
Gil Vicente
GIL
Estoril
ESO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gil Vicente55%
Draw26%
Estoril19%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.88
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession41%
35%Territory30%
10%From set plays20%
0.14Chance quality0.07
4.7%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Gil Vicente, 3 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.