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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12

Casa Pia AC

CAS

Braga

BRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Casa Pia AC13%
Draw21%
Braga66%

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.97

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–113.2%
  • 0–212.4%
  • 1–29.7%
  • 1–19.7%
  • 0–37.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession63%
41%Territory54%
24%From set plays36%
0.07Chance quality0.08
4.5%Directness2.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Casa Pia AC, 3 for Braga. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.