Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12
Arouca
ARO
Rio Ave
RIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca60%
Draw24%
Rio Ave15%
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.78
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.5%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession57%
45%Territory36%
12%From set plays13%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.1%Directness2.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 2 for Rio Ave. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.