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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12

Arouca

ARO

Rio Ave

RIO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arouca55%
Draw25%
Rio Ave20%

Expected goals

1.74 – 0.98

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.1%
  • 1111.2%
  • 219.8%
  • 209.8%
  • 007.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arouca will have the ball; Rio Ave will not mind.

56%Possession39%
43%Territory29%
6%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.08
3.8%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arouca, 3 for Rio Ave. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.