Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Vitória de Guimarães
VIT
FC Porto
FCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vitória de Guimarães16%
Draw24%
FC Porto60%
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.79
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.4%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession59%
40%Territory39%
26%From set plays37%
0.08Chance quality0.20
5.9%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vitória de Guimarães, 3 for FC Porto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vitória de Guimarães
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.