Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Santa Clara
SAN
Gil Vicente
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santa Clara45%
Draw31%
Gil Vicente24%
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.87
Over 2.5
36%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.2%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession47%
32%Territory35%
14%From set plays10%
0.13Chance quality0.14
6.7%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Santa Clara, 3 for Gil Vicente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Santa Clara
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.