Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Nacional
NAC
Académico Viseu
ACA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional44%
Draw26%
Académico Viseu30%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.27
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession47%
29%Territory24%
23%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.11
6.9%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nacional, 3 for Académico Viseu. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Académico Viseu
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.