Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Famalicão
FAM
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Famalicão34%
Draw31%
Arouca35%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.13
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession67%
25%Territory45%
46%From set plays12%
0.07Chance quality0.09
5.1%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Famalicão, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.