Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Famalicão
FAM
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Famalicão41%
Draw31%
Arouca28%
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.95
Over 2.5
36%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession67%
18%Territory45%
43%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.5%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Famalicão, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Famalicão
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.