Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Estoril
ESO
Marítimo
MAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril44%
Draw28%
Marítimo28%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.15
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marítimo will have the ball; Estoril will not mind.
41%Possession50%
30%Territory28%
20%From set plays67%
0.07Chance quality0.08
8.1%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Estoril, 3 for Marítimo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.