Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora20%
Draw23%
Benfica58%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.97
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession61%
39%Territory36%
28%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 1 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Benfica
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.