Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora17%
Draw22%
Benfica60%
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.96
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–110.9%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession63%
39%Territory43%
28%From set plays13%
0.08Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.