Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Alverca
ALV
Casa Pia AC
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca55%
Draw25%
Casa Pia AC20%
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.96
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession42%
32%Territory42%
37%From set plays52%
0.14Chance quality0.06
6.0%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alverca, 3 for Casa Pia AC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Casa Pia AC
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.