Liga Portugal · Matchweek 11
Alverca
ALV
Casa Pia AC
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca51%
Draw27%
Casa Pia AC23%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.01
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
29%Possession41%
23%Territory41%
50%From set plays24%
0.05Chance quality0.07
6.1%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Alverca, 2 for Casa Pia AC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Alverca
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 13 of 88 matches, not the full season.