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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 10

Moreirense

MOR

Estrela da Amadora

EST

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Moreirense30%
Draw26%
Estrela da Amadora44%

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.64

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 2–17.2%
  • 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Estrela da Amadora will have the ball; Moreirense will not mind.

33%Possession47%
23%Territory35%
37%From set plays15%
0.11Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Moreirense, 4 for Estrela da Amadora.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.