Liga Portugal · Matchweek 10
Arouca
ARO
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca49%
Draw26%
Nacional25%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.15
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Arouca will have the ball; Nacional will not mind.
56%Possession47%
43%Territory29%
6%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.10
3.8%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arouca, 3 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arouca
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.