Liga Portugal · Matchweek 8
Famalicão
FAM
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Famalicão53%
Draw27%
Alverca20%
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.88
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession42%
38%Territory32%
43%From set plays37%
0.08Chance quality0.14
4.9%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Famalicão, 3 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Famalicão
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.