Liga Portugal · Matchweek 7
FC Porto
FCP
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Porto40%
Draw28%
Benfica32%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.22
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession66%
39%Territory52%
37%From set plays30%
0.20Chance quality0.13
4.9%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Porto, 4 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.