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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 7

Estrela da Amadora

EST

Académico Viseu

ACA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Estrela da Amadora55%
Draw23%
Académico Viseu22%

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.16

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.4%
  • 219.8%
  • 109.5%
  • 208.4%
  • 316.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession47%
35%Territory24%
15%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.11
5.6%Directness8.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Estrela da Amadora, 3 for Académico Viseu. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.