Liga Portugal · Matchweek 7
Alverca
ALV
Rio Ave
RIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca51%
Draw26%
Rio Ave23%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.08
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession39%
32%Territory29%
37%From set plays27%
0.14Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alverca, 3 for Rio Ave. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.