2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 26
St. Pauli
STP
Darmstadt
DAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli47%
Draw28%
Darmstadt26%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.04
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
St. Pauli will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.
56%Possession43%
42%Territory38%
31%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.08
2.9%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.