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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 26

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden44%
Draw27%
Holstein Kiel29%

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.19

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–18.1%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession45%
31%Territory28%
39%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.11
4.7%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.