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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 26

Energie Cottbus

ENE

FC Heidenheim

FCH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus29%
Draw25%
FC Heidenheim46%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.79

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 2–17.0%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

FC Heidenheim get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession51%
31%Territory34%
12%From set plays45%
0.10Chance quality0.09
8.8%Directness7.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.