2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 25
VfL Osnabrück
VFL
Arminia Bielefeld
ARM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
VfL Osnabrück39%
Draw29%
Arminia Bielefeld32%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.18
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession43%
34%Territory34%
21%From set plays33%
0.15Chance quality0.07
4.9%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.