2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 25
St. Pauli
STP
Hannover 96
HAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli39%
Draw27%
Hannover 9634%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.33
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession50%
42%Territory37%
31%From set plays44%
0.11Chance quality0.10
2.9%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Hannover 96. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.