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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden45%
Draw26%
VfL Osnabrück29%

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.29

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.2%
  • 1–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dynamo Dresden get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

49%Possession42%
31%Territory34%
39%From set plays21%
0.15Chance quality0.15
4.7%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for VfL Osnabrück. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.