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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus34%
Draw28%
Darmstadt38%

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.38

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 0–19.9%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 1–28.4%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession43%
31%Territory38%
12%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.08
8.8%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.