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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Bochum

BOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld40%
Draw30%
Bochum30%

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.06

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–012.6%
  • 0–011.2%
  • 0–110.5%
  • 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

43%Possession45%
34%Territory39%
33%From set plays38%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.5%Directness6.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for Bochum. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.