Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 23

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfL Osnabrück42%
Draw28%
Holstein Kiel30%

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.15

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–011.3%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 0–09.1%
  • 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession45%
34%Territory28%
21%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.