2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 22
Wolfsburg
WOL
St. Pauli
STP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wolfsburg37%
Draw27%
St. Pauli36%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.41
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession56%
39%Territory42%
20%From set plays31%
0.06Chance quality0.11
4.1%Directness2.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wolfsburg, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.