2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 22
Holstein Kiel
HOL
FC Heidenheim
FCH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel37%
Draw28%
FC Heidenheim36%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.36
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
28%Territory34%
30%From set plays45%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Holstein Kiel
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.