2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
St. Pauli
STP
Arminia Bielefeld
ARM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli44%
Draw28%
Arminia Bielefeld28%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.09
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
St. Pauli will have the ball; Arminia Bielefeld will not mind.
56%Possession43%
42%Territory34%
31%From set plays33%
0.11Chance quality0.07
2.9%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.