2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
St. Pauli
STP
Arminia Bielefeld
ARM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli34%
Draw30%
Arminia Bielefeld36%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.23
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession50%
47%Territory33%
32%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.6%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.