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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg52%
Draw26%
Holstein Kiel22%

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.99

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.4%
  • 1111.8%
  • 219.6%
  • 209.4%
  • 008.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Holstein Kiel get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession53%
35%Territory40%
13%From set plays35%
0.10Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.