2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
1. FC Nürnberg
FCN
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
1. FC Nürnberg52%
Draw26%
Holstein Kiel22%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.99
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Holstein Kiel get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
54%Possession53%
35%Territory40%
13%From set plays35%
0.10Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
1. FC Nürnberg
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.