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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg46%
Draw26%
Holstein Kiel28%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.21

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.5%
  • 2–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

1. FC Nürnberg will have the ball; Holstein Kiel will not mind.

61%Possession45%
42%Territory28%
24%From set plays30%
0.07Chance quality0.11
5.0%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.